Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau-

Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau

Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau

作者:禅意卡通壁纸更新时间:2021-01-21 21:52:31

在经历了40余年高速发展后,支撑我国经济持续高速增长的诸多因素开始逐步弱化我国发展模式需要从以往的速度规模型经济增长向质量效益型经济发展进行转变Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau另一方面,逆全球化、中美贸易摩擦、新冠疫情等都对未来五年的发展提出了全新挑战从中长期看,面临的第一个大挑战是:完成工业化进程之后,怎么去进一步提升我们的全要素生产率(TFP)工业化时代适合全要素生产率(TFP)保持高速增长,但中国工业化进程基本结束,到2035年,服务业的GDP占比将达到65%以上,在服务业领域保持高TFP年增速并不容易

第二个大挑战在于:如何提升中国经济在全球价值链的位置,在全球化的新阶段形成产业供应链的相对闭环中国在全球价值链的参与度非常高,但同时也大量地依赖上游进口,如何形成供应链闭环是未来一段时期非常大的挑战Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau第三个挑战在于我们的资本、人力、土地等要素流通不畅,与高质量发展的中国经济并不匹配机遇又在哪里?第一,中国仍然是全球第二大经济体,我们有4亿新的中等收入群体正在崛起,中国正在成为全世界最大的消费市场第二,中国的大国工业,我们的制造业占到GDP的27%-28%,而美国只有11%,如果在未来,我们争取把制造业的比例保持在20%以上,本身就可以释放巨大的全要素生产率(TFP)增长潜能

第三,“再工业化”即产业的数字化转型带来的巨大机会,再工业化本身以及为之提供基础的“新基建”,将带来我国全要素生产率大幅提升的巨大空间第四,产业结构的变迁与人口流动Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau根据光华思想力的测算,我国目前城市化率是60%左右,到了2035年会达到75%甚至80%左右这意味着未来15年还将有20%的人口从农村转移到城市,这个过程中将产生新的庞大的需求要回应这些挑战与机遇,就意味着“十四五”规划的思路必须改变:不再追求GDP等总量指标的高增长,而更加关注经济的高质量发展,关注产业结构的均衡,更强调人民福祉,坚持创新在现代化建设全局中的核心地位,更加依靠“需求驱动”“创新驱动”的发展路径

中国发展模式从来不是一个固定不变的概念或是思维框架,它是一个随时间的变化而不断变化的思维探索和实践探索的集成中国经济社会所处的发展阶段的不一样,就决定了破题思路的不一样Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau这就是十四五规划“变”的部分通过对2035年的远景目标的设计,倒推我们在“十四五”、“十五五”、“十六五”应该做些什么,“十四五”必须达成什么的目标,才能为未来十几年的目标实现夯实基础02“创新”的核心地位

全会公报提出,坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位,把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑“核心”二字在党中央的文件里,使用是很谨慎的,这说明,对创新的强调,达到了前所未有的高度Bí ẩn sòng bạc Macau创新,是对于我们如何形成供应链闭环这一挑战的回应在全球化一帆风顺的阶段,我们体会不到这种挑战的巨大如芯片、飞机发动机等制约经济发展的关键核心零部件和技术,通过这一次中美贸易争端反映出来,这是我们面临非常棘手的问题

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